2017/12: Forecasts for 2018

Walks like a bubble, talks like a bubble, smells like a bubble.

While South Africa’s constitutional court has technically opened the path to Zuma’s
impeachment, Ramaphosa will instead engineer a gentle Zuma departure via the
ANC’s internal structures. Impeachment would be so much messier for an ANC
in self-preservation mode.

There are by various estimates anywhere from 270 million to 310 million guns in
the US – close to one firearm for every man, woman and child. Under Trump’s
divisive presidency, it’s only a matter of time before something bad happens.

The current IAAF record for men is 2.02.57 set by Dennis Kimetto of Kenya in
September 2014. The fastest recorded (but unofficial) was by Kenyan Eliud
Kipchoge at 2.00.25 in May 2017.

The Democrats will take the House by a hairbreadth.

US equities over-priced and tax cuts already factored in. Upside potential from
infrastructure plan is limited, and downside potential from attractive alternatives
is absent (i.e. bonds unattractive). So market sideways to slightly up in
2018 and fall comes in 2019.

Brexit divorce deal means May’s position is less tenuous. Conservative party
will try to avoid an internal war until 2019.

Triggers will be China’s subsidised aluminium and steel production, and
alleged IP theft.

Same as 2017.

The Fed will raise interest rates at least 3 times this year. But inflation
remains sticky due to persistent secular forces, such as globalisation
and technology-enabled disruption.

Fourth straight year of recession under Maduro that has triggered widespread
medical and food shortages, the world’s steepest inflation, and a
wave of emigration. Unsustainable.

Too complicated and technical to explain.

New president Mnangagwa has promised an election this year. But there’s a
small problem – he might lose (Zanu PF is not very popular). It’s increasingly
apparent that he is the junior partner in an army-dominated administration – and
the military won’t be too happy with a Zanu PF loss.

One has to stay optimistic. I’m predicting (I mean…hoping for) robust NW and
big swell here in northern California from April to October. Please. Thanks.